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Substantial Increase in Rabi Crops expected this year

Significant increase in crop area may result in substantial increase in wheat crop this year. As per Agriculture Ministry, the area under wheat has increased to 142.05 lakh hectares (lh) against 119.5 lh during the corresponding period a year ago. Driven by good prices in open market, farmers in North India have gone for wheat in large scale.

During the weekend, wheat (dara) ruled at Rs 880-882 a quintal. During the same time last year, the prices were around Rs 762 and the year before, it was at Rs 742. It should be noted that open market prices are well above the minimum support price (MSP) of Rs 650 a quintal fixed by the Centre for the current rabi season. Futures price is also above the MSP with wheat quoting at Rs 776 a quintal on National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange for delivery in March.

Another factor that may lead to higher market price is low stock of wheat in the country - which is lower than critical level of 10 million tonnes. Besides, by April it could be down to around one million tonnes.

Weather may still play spoilsport in this optimistic scenario. Though wheat crop looked promising during last two seasons but early end to winter in 2003 and late start to winter last season has hurt production significantly. Last year, wheat production was 72 million tonnes, lower by 0.11 million tonnes compared with the previous year. Weather conditions are excellent this year so far as germination of wheat is concerned.

The water level in the reservoirs is also an encouraging trend for an overall improvement in rabi sowing, barring coarse cereals. The storage level in the 76 major reservoirs is higher by 36 per cent compared with the same period a year ago and 21 per cent compared with the average level in the last 10 years. The water level in these reservoirs is 100.26 billion cubic metres (bcm) against the full level of 133.02 bcm.

Rice sowing is up marginally but a clear picture is awaited in view of the havoc wreaked by rains in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. The latest figures, however, show the area up by 70,000 hectares in Tamil Nadu. Among coarse cereals, the area under jowar is down to 46.84 lh (50.13 lh) but sowing of maize and barley is up marginally.

Oilseeds crop is another that is promising during the current rabi season. The area under rapeseed/mustard is up 4.87 lh to 67.28 lh with sowing mainly rising in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. The area under groundnut and safflower is down marginally but is up in the case of sesame, linseed and sunflower. Acreage under pulses is up at 94 lh against 92.68 lh during the year-ago period.

Dec 12' 2005